After the massive devaluation of the currency in waking up of Russia military offensive in Ukraine, the ruble seems to have made Amazing comeback due to energy exports and strict capital controls.
But analysts warn of that success he is in Many aspects are artificial and do not bode well for the health of Russians economy.
February 24 military proces triggered Unprecedented Western sanctions on Moscow, sending the ruble into free fall and acceleration already High inflation.
Four days after President Vladimir Putin sent troops into the pro-Western country, the center of the country bank more of her weakness key benefit rate to 20% for support up The financial system.
in a surprise move Middle Friday bank scale down rate 17% say risks financial Stability “stop increasing” for right Now.
“that it clear that the central bank of Russia appreciates that Russia economy Now coming out of the sharpest phase of “Its crisis and that such restrictive monetary terms are no longer justified,” said Liam Beach, emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics.
Return of the ruble to the levels last we saw before start of Moscow military campaign he is sign that economy Economists say he may adapt to sanctions.
solid exports
Sophia Donets, chief economist at Renaissance Capital, said the ruble recovery Done with unprecedented help trade surplus.
“he was there decline in Imports, partly because of of Penalties, partly because of She told the French news agency (AFP) that the ambiguity and logistical turmoil “.
“But exports are strong and with High Commodity Prices We expect a historically high account surplus of 20-25 billion dollars in March,” she said.
Russian oil and gas main Exports, continuing to flow out, fill the coffers of Russia.
US Bans Russian Oil Imports, EU Adopts Ban on Russian steel imports but these sanctions largely escaped key Russian exports.
“It only affects 5%. of “Russian exports are not that big,” Donets said.
Strong exports were supplemented by hard capital controls central foot bank.
The West froze about $300 billion of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves abroad, a move Which Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said amounted to “theft. “
To face the sanctions, the exporting companies were forced to sell 80%. of exported earnings to buy rubles.
Russians have also Banned from withdrawing more from $10,000 in foreign currency or take more So amount out of Country, foreign investors have been banned from selling Russian assets.
“no precedent”
fast ruble recovery Not equal to strong economyHowever, analysts said.
Russian stocks and the ruble currently remain detach from global macro operators and news Flow due to capital controls, said Alfa Bank in note,
You estimate that the ruble will be trading at about 80-85 to dollar in near future.
Economists believe that the worst economic impact of Sanctions are yet to come and expect Russia, which has been heavily relied upon on imports of manufacturing equipment And consumer goods, to plunge into a deep recession.
inflation in Russia rate reached 16.7% year-over-year in The government statistics agency said in March on Friday, a level not seen since 2015, while food prices rose evenly more sharply.
Capital Economics noted out That 7.6% month-over-Month rise in Consumer prices in Russia in it was march highest Monthly increase since the 1990s.”
Renaissance Capital analysts expect annual inflation to peak at 24% this summer.
Donets said, “The market he is destroyed in feeling.”
We have closed financial system Now it added.
Where is the ruble? rate be if there is no capital controls? it’s very hard She warned that there was no precedent.
After the massive devaluation of the currency in waking up of Russia military offensive in Ukraine, the ruble seems to have made Amazing comeback due to energy exports and strict capital controls.
But analysts warn of that success he is in Many aspects are artificial and do not bode well for the health of Russians economy.
February 24 military proces triggered Unprecedented Western sanctions on Moscow, sending the ruble into free fall and acceleration already High inflation.
Four days after President Vladimir Putin sent troops into the pro-Western country, the center of the country bank more of her weakness key benefit rate to 20% for support up The financial system.
in a surprise move Middle Friday bank scale down rate 17% say risks financial Stability “stop increasing” for right Now.
“that it clear that the central bank of Russia appreciates that Russia economy Now coming out of the sharpest phase of “Its crisis and that such restrictive monetary terms are no longer justified,” said Liam Beach, emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics.
Return of the ruble to the levels last we saw before start of Moscow military campaign he is sign that economy Economists say he may adapt to sanctions.
solid exports
Sophia Donets, chief economist at Renaissance Capital, said the ruble recovery Done with unprecedented help trade surplus.
“he was there decline in Imports, partly because of of Penalties, partly because of She told the French news agency (AFP) that the ambiguity and logistical turmoil “.
“But exports are strong and with High Commodity Prices We expect a historically high account surplus of 20-25 billion dollars in March,” she said.
Russian oil and gas main Exports, continuing to flow out, fill the coffers of Russia.
US Bans Russian Oil Imports, EU Adopts Ban on Russian steel imports but these sanctions largely escaped key Russian exports.
“It only affects 5%. of “Russian exports are not that big,” Donets said.
Strong exports were supplemented by hard capital controls central foot bank.
The West froze about $300 billion of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves abroad, a move Which Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said amounted to “theft. “
To face the sanctions, the exporting companies were forced to sell 80%. of exported earnings to buy rubles.
Russians have also Banned from withdrawing more from $10,000 in foreign currency or take more So amount out of Country, foreign investors have been banned from selling Russian assets.
“no precedent”
fast ruble recovery Not equal to strong economyHowever, analysts said.
Russian stocks and the ruble currently remain detach from global macro operators and news Flow due to capital controls, said Alfa Bank in note,
You estimate that the ruble will be trading at about 80-85 to dollar in near future.
Economists believe that the worst economic impact of Sanctions are yet to come and expect Russia, which has been heavily relied upon on imports of manufacturing equipment And consumer goods, to plunge into a deep recession.
inflation in Russia rate reached 16.7% year-over-year in The government statistics agency said in March on Friday, a level not seen since 2015, while food prices rose evenly more sharply.
Capital Economics noted out That 7.6% month-over-Month rise in Consumer prices in Russia in it was march highest Monthly increase since the 1990s.”
Renaissance Capital analysts expect annual inflation to peak at 24% this summer.
Donets said, “The market he is destroyed in feeling.”
We have closed financial system Now it added.
Where is the ruble? rate be if there is no capital controls? it’s very hard She warned that there was no precedent.