Flexibility of Russia economy Many observers were surprised over the past year Like Moscow adjusts Unprecedented Western sanctions over its attack on Ukraine.
but in rare public Recognize, warned Russian President Vladimir Putin of possible Economic problems coming late last Month and urged government to work quickly.
imposed penalties against Russians economy in average term “It really can have a negative effect,” Putin said in a televised meeting.
It was a big change of tone after Putin said earlier that the worst was overpraising the benefits of “economic sovereignty” and insist that the West sanctions strategy And it backfired.
What exactly is Putin’s message?
“Mr. Putin’s remark is simply sobering,” said Arnaud Dupin. director of French-Russian Observatory in Moscow.
Dubin, A.; veteran Russia expert said, Putin is seeking to mobilize businesses and government More officials like Russia cutting links with the West.
He described what the head of the Kremlin said logic.
Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Central Russia bank officialindicates that Putin’s message is primarily aimed at businesses hit hard with penalties.
“It’s a corporate message,” Prokopenko said. who I worked in the center bank Between 2017 and 2022 he resigned after start of Moscow attack on Ukraine.
“You’re just safe in Russia is under my responsibility. nothing way back’, referring to his photo possible thinking.
‘A difficult situation’
more than year in Moscow offensive in Ukraine and Russian economy increasingly dependent on Energy exports to Asia, falling further behind in Many high value sectors. In addition, the exodus of hundreds of thousands of Mobilization of the Russians and the Kremlin drive led to labour force deficiency.
Dupin pointed out the special problems in the car the industry in which it thrived leading foreign automakers set up shop in Russia in early 2000s.
The sectors most affected by the sanctions, such as car production, are those most open to investment and international cooperation “.
In late March, leading Russian automaker AvtoVAZ said several parts suppliers had halted deliveries, prompting struggling company to bring forward annual holiday.
Prokopenko, who Now with Russian research government Policy making at the German Council based in Berlin on External relations, she said that the sectors associated with military- Industrial complex – optics, pharmaceuticals, metallurgical production – “Where economy Doing it best. “
Sergey Tsyplakov A professor at the Moscow Higher School of Economics, he warned, warned that the Kremlin’s much-vaunted pivot toward China and India could not happen solve All the problems.
Although the Russian economy It did not collapse immediately after imposition of penalties, status remains difficult “.
economic decline
Many economists expect the economic outlook to become bleaker in the coming months.
Prokopenko recalled out This windfall from them sky- Higher energy prices helped Russia weather The initial shock from the unprecedented sanctions.
“It won’t happen this year,” she said.
In 2023, there are none sign Let’s expect Russia to get this extra income.
In February, Moscow’s revenues from oil exports fell by 42% compared to last year, according to the International Energy Agency.
redirect of Russia, which was once in Europe leading Gas supplier, toward Asian markets is expected to take some time.
Observers say Putin has a vital interest in He sees high energy returns if he wants to fund the Moscow offensive on Ukraine and keep the opposition in home in an auction.
Prokopenko said she saw “a lot of problems” Before.
“Briefly-term Russian perspective economy Don’t work badly. Still working,” emphasizing on that score new Partners will take time.
“the future misty”.
Dupin estimated that Putin could afford financing offensive in Ukraine for Another “three to four years” but warned that economy facing years of Further retreat.
“she has already lost equalizer of a decade of development Since 2014, ”referring to year When the West slapped Russia with Penalties over annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.
You can lose now second one also.”
Flexibility of Russia economy Many observers were surprised over the past year Like Moscow adjusts Unprecedented Western sanctions over its attack on Ukraine.
but in rare public Recognize, warned Russian President Vladimir Putin of possible Economic problems coming late last Month and urged government to work quickly.
imposed penalties against Russians economy in average term “It really can have a negative effect,” Putin said in a televised meeting.
It was a big change of tone after Putin said earlier that the worst was overpraising the benefits of “economic sovereignty” and insist that the West sanctions strategy And it backfired.
What exactly is Putin’s message?
“Mr. Putin’s remark is simply sobering,” said Arnaud Dupin. director of French-Russian Observatory in Moscow.
Dubin, A.; veteran Russia expert said, Putin is seeking to mobilize businesses and government More officials like Russia cutting links with the West.
He described what the head of the Kremlin said logic.
Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Central Russia bank officialindicates that Putin’s message is primarily aimed at businesses hit hard with penalties.
“It’s a corporate message,” Prokopenko said. who I worked in the center bank Between 2017 and 2022 he resigned after start of Moscow attack on Ukraine.
“You’re just safe in Russia is under my responsibility. nothing way back’, referring to his photo possible thinking.
‘A difficult situation’
more than year in Moscow offensive in Ukraine and Russian economy increasingly dependent on Energy exports to Asia, falling further behind in Many high value sectors. In addition, the exodus of hundreds of thousands of Mobilization of the Russians and the Kremlin drive led to labour force deficiency.
Dupin pointed out the special problems in the car the industry in which it thrived leading foreign automakers set up shop in Russia in early 2000s.
The sectors most affected by the sanctions, such as car production, are those most open to investment and international cooperation “.
In late March, leading Russian automaker AvtoVAZ said several parts suppliers had halted deliveries, prompting struggling company to bring forward annual holiday.
Prokopenko, who Now with Russian research government Policy making at the German Council based in Berlin on External relations, she said that the sectors associated with military- Industrial complex – optics, pharmaceuticals, metallurgical production – “Where economy Doing it best. “
Sergey Tsyplakov A professor at the Moscow Higher School of Economics, he warned, warned that the Kremlin’s much-vaunted pivot toward China and India could not happen solve All the problems.
Although the Russian economy It did not collapse immediately after imposition of penalties, status remains difficult “.
economic decline
Many economists expect the economic outlook to become bleaker in the coming months.
Prokopenko recalled out This windfall from them sky- Higher energy prices helped Russia weather The initial shock from the unprecedented sanctions.
“It won’t happen this year,” she said.
In 2023, there are none sign Let’s expect Russia to get this extra income.
In February, Moscow’s revenues from oil exports fell by 42% compared to last year, according to the International Energy Agency.
redirect of Russia, which was once in Europe leading Gas supplier, toward Asian markets is expected to take some time.
Observers say Putin has a vital interest in He sees high energy returns if he wants to fund the Moscow offensive on Ukraine and keep the opposition in home in an auction.
Prokopenko said she saw “a lot of problems” Before.
“Briefly-term Russian perspective economy Don’t work badly. Still working,” emphasizing on that score new Partners will take time.
“the future misty”.
Dupin estimated that Putin could afford financing offensive in Ukraine for Another “three to four years” but warned that economy facing years of Further retreat.
“she has already lost equalizer of a decade of development Since 2014, ”referring to year When the West slapped Russia with Penalties over annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.
You can lose now second one also.”