Within months, wheat, long a peace factor in times of abundance, became a diplomatic weapon in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Here is an overview of the main causes of a major crisis caused by the suspension of its exports, which threatens the food security of millions of people.
More than 200 million people in the world suffer from severe hunger, according to the UN, which fears a new “hungry cyclone” due to the sharp increase in food prices since the beginning of the conflict.
“Everyone eats wheat, but not everyone can produce it,” says French economist Bruno Parmentier, author of Nourer L’Humanite.
Today, only dozens of countries produce enough wheat to be able to export it: China is the world’s largest producer of wheat, but it is also a major importer of this grain, since its production is not enough to feed 1.4 billion people. The main exporting countries are Russia, USA, Canada, Australia and Ukraine. Wheat, consumed by billions of people and subsidized in many countries, is “a staple of global food security,” says Sébastien Apis, a research fellow at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations in Paris (IRIS). As for corn, “it is used primarily for animal feed or for industrial purposes.”
And the price of wheat began to rise in world markets from the fall of 2021 and remained at a high level in light of the economic recovery after the pandemic. Behind this upward curve are the factors: a sharp rise in energy costs due to high oil and gas prices, nitrogen fertilizers (made from gas, the price of which has tripled in a year), transport (congested ports, lack of labor …) and inclement weather, especially crops. A catastrophic situation in Canada, which was ravaged by a heat wave last summer. After the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, wheat prices set records and the price per ton in the European market rose to more than 400 euros in May, twice as much as last summer.
This increase cannot be sustained by poor countries, especially those that import “at least 30% of their needs from Ukraine and Russia,” according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
Russia and Ukraine accounted for 30% of world grain exports. Their production has steadily increased in recent years, with Russia topping the list of exporters and Ukraine on track to take third place.
The closure of the Sea of Azov and the blockade of Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea have deprived markets for more than 25 million tons of grain, which is now stuck in farms or in port warehouses.
Although some quantities have been exported by land and rail, exports are still six times lower than by sea.
Ukrainian agrarians have faced a dangerous planting season, with some having to work in bulletproof vests and hire specialists to remove mines and other munitions from the fields. According to the estimates of the Main Association of Producers and Exporters of Ukraine, the yield will decrease by 40% for wheat and 30% for corn.
Bruno Parmentier argues that “in times of war the great producing countries control the fate of other countries” because “no country can leave its capital to starve”. But hunger “is not related to food production, but is always caused by access problems,” according to Arif Hussain, chief economist for the World Food Programme.
Negotiations began under Turkish auspices in early June at the request of the UN to establish “safe sea lanes” that would allow the export of supplies.
Johnson proposes using the Danube for free grain
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has suggested that the Danube and other rivers could be used to release blocked Ukrainian grain, telling MPs that “alternative methods” would be considered if Russia continued to block the sea route, German news agency DPA reported.
He stressed that there are no plans to violate the Montreux Convention, which limits the movement of warships through the Turkish straits, but the option with rivers and railways will allow less grain to be exported, according to the British news agency.
Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea raised fears of starvation around the world.
North Atlantic launches ratification of membership of Sweden and Finland
Yesterday, NATO member countries began the process of ratifying Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO, which was a historic decision for the two Nordic countries, caused by Russia’s war with Ukraine.
“The signing of the accession protocols launches the ratification process in each of the member states,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said before the alliance’s ambassadors signed the protocols during a ceremony at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.
Turkey agreed to launch the process during the NATO leaders’ summit in Madrid, but President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reminded the two northern countries of the conditions to be met.