Homicide Rates Higher in Democrat-Run “Blue Counties” Than “Red Counties” Since 2002

A recent report from the Heritage Foundation reveals that homicide rates have been consistently higher in Democrat-run “blue counties” compared to “red counties” since 2002. This contradicts a common talking point repeated by prominent liberals such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom and billionaire George Soros.

Democratic Claims and Flawed Methodology

Gavin Newsom has publicly stated that “8 of the top 10 murder states are red,” while George Soros wrote in the Wall Street Journal that “violent crime in recent years has generally been increasing more quickly in jurisdictions without reform-minded prosecutors” and “murder rates have been rising fastest in some Republican states led by tough-on-crime politicians.”

However, the Heritage Foundation’s Kevin Dayaratna, who authored the report along with former research assistant Alexander Gage, argues that the studies cited by Democrats use a “flawed” methodology. Crime is a local issue, and therefore, crime analysis should be conducted at the local level.

County-Level Analysis

The study emphasizes that drawing conclusions from state-level homicide data is flawed because each state comprises various law enforcement agencies and prosecutors with different approaches to law enforcement, often based on divergent political beliefs.

By analyzing homicide rates at the county level, the study reveals that blue counties have a 60% higher homicide rate than red counties. This highlights the significant impact of political identification on homicide rates.

Limitations of State-Level Analysis

State homicide rates can be heavily influenced by a few counties with different political leanings. Therefore, combining data across different units neglects important variations in approaches to law enforcement.

Changes in Electoral Sentiment

The report criticizes a recent study from Third Way titled “The Two-Decade Red State Murder Problem” for not accounting for changes in electoral sentiment over time. Electoral outcomes can vary, and categorizing states based on consistent voting patterns across a 21-year period is a flawed approach.

Increasing Homicide Rates in Blue Counties

According to the Heritage Foundation’s analysis, there was an 88% higher rate of homicide in blue counties compared to red counties between 2002 and 2008. Furthermore, between 2014 and 2022, there was a 62% increase in homicide rates in blue counties.

Democratic Mayors and Soros-Backed Prosecutors

A separate study conducted by Heritage Foundation scholars in collaboration with Cully Stimson and Zack Smith found that among the 30 American cities with the highest murder rates, 27 have Democratic mayors and at least 14 have prosecutors supported by George Soros.

In response to the criticism regarding the electoral map, the spokesperson for the Heritage Foundation stated that they chose an approach that categorizes states consistently across 21 years, and including electoral changes would only increase red state murder rates.