Haber Tusba Awards Circuit: Predictions and Commentary
Haber Tusba Awards Circuit is the go-to section for all awards news and related content throughout the year. It features official predictions for upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Haber Tusba senior awards editor Clayton Davis. These predictions reflect the current standings in the race and are not based on personal preferences for any individual contender.
As with other polls, these predictions are subject to change based on buzz and events. They are updated every Thursday. Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
2024 Oscars Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role
Weekly Commentary (Updated July 30, 2023):
“Thanks to Barbie, all problems of feminism have been solved.” Well, perhaps the Academy’s TV rating concerns could also benefit if they embrace Greta Gerwig’s meta-comedy in a significant way, in categories such as best picture, supporting actor (Ryan Gosling), and best actress for its star Margot Robbie. How far will “Barbie” go with Oscar voters? That’s what consumers and casual awards enthusiasts want to know.
Robbie, a two-time Oscar nominee for “I, Tonya” (2017) and “Bombshell” (2019), is well-liked by her fellow actors. Coincidentally, as a producer for “Tonya,” she was also almost double nominated that year. Now, as one of the producers for the Mattel box office hit, she could become the second woman nominated for producing and acting in the same year (the first was Frances McDormand for “Nomadland,” for which she won both).
While an acting nomination for the Australian performer is possible, the film would have to prove itself as an awards favorite, which isn’t always a given with something from the comedy genre. Nonetheless, it will remain a topic of conversation over the next few months. Golden Globes will surely bite in the comedy/musical categories, but let’s see if other groups follow suit.
The first half of 2023 has provided one surefire contender with Greta Lee as the beautiful Nora, a South Korean immigrant who finds her childhood love in Celine Song’s “Past Lives.” Cannes dropped the one-two punch of Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore from Todd Haynes’ “May December,” we expect to hear both of their names on the circuit. However, no decisions have yet to be made on either of their campaigns, but we suspect Portman may opt for lead, with Moore angling for supporting.
In addition to Moore, some other “supporting” players could opt for leading status, such as Lily Gladstone from “Killers of the Flower Moon” (we’re expecting supporting) or the still unseen “Maestro” and “Napoleon” with Carey Mulligan and Vanessa Kirby. Question marks are on several of this year’s release schedules amid the Hollywood strikes. That’s why we’re pumping the brakes on Fantasia Barrino’s work in “The Color Purple,” which could go either way with a Christmas release. The same for its Warner Bros counterpart, “Dune Part Two” with Zendaya (especially after MGM’s “Challengers” already exited the year).
The same goes for the movies without distribution but debuting at some of the upcoming fall festivals, such as “Lee” with Kate Winslet, “Origin” with Anjanue Ellis-Taylor and “Memory” with Jessica Chastain. There are also a handful of undated projects, such as “Leave the World Behind” with Julia Roberts and “Nightbitch” with Amy Adams, that we’re keeping a close eye on.
Read: Haber Tusba’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23. The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 10.
Predicted Nominees
- Natalie Portman — “May December” (Netflix)
- Carey Mulligan — “Maestro” (Netflix)
- Greta Lee — “Past Lives” (A24)
- Sandra Hüller — “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
- Margot Robbie — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Next in Line
- Fantasia Barrino — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Annette Bening — “Nyad” (Netflix)
- Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Kate Winslet — “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Amy Adams — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Julianne Moore — “May December” (Netflix)
- Sandra Hüller — “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
- Cailee Spaeny — “Priscilla” (A24)
- Phoebe Dynevor — “Fair Play” (Netflix)
- Anjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Origin” (No U.S. Distribution)
- Vanessa Kirby — “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
- Teyana Taylor — “A Thousand and One” (Focus Features)
- Jessie Buckley — “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
- Trace Lysette — “Monica” (IFC Films)
Also In Contention
- Saoirse Ronan — “Foe” (Amazon Studios)
- Penélope Cruz — “Ferrari” (Neon)
- Leonie Benesch — “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Helen Mirren — “Golda” (Bleecker Street)
- Layla Mohammadi — “The Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Abby Ryder Fortson — “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- Jessica Chastain — “Memory” (No U.S. Distribution)
- Jane Levy — “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Anjanue Ellis-Taylor — “The Nickel Boys” (MGM)
- Scarlett Johansson — “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)
- Greta Lee — “Past Lives” (A24)
- Cailee Spaeny — “Priscilla” (A24)
- Michelle Williams — “Showing